In September, sentiment regarding a potential Anthropic IPO hit a fever pitch.
“The public sale, which could value it at more than $2 trillion, would capitalize on the rapid rise of the AI start-up lab that only came into existence five years ago, and establish it as a benchmark for how Wall Street values AI’s leading companies, including rival OpenAI,” a Reuters article reported. “Anthropic’s expected valuation target is more than double its own estimated valuation of $965 billion in May.”
Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn’t buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of “Act 1″—the R&D phase. “Act 2” is the global rollout. Continue »
The recent correction in artificial intelligence stocks, however, is throwing Anthropic’s IPO valuation into question. Even a blue chip stock like Nvidia has fallen by more than 25% since its early October peak.
“Anthropic PBC’s initial public offering plans ran into a punishing post-election sell-off, prompting a rethink among prospective investors of the company’s expected valuation,” a Bloomberg article noted on Nov. 6. Reports suggest that the company will now target a valuation between $1.2 trillion and $1.3 trillion. But some experts believe Anthropic will ultimately settle for a valuation closer to $1.1 trillion — $900 billion short of the company’s rumored target just over a month ago.
But it’s not just Anthropic’s valuation that is under fire. Betting markets are increasingly skeptical that Anthropic will even go public this year. Recent trading activity sheds light on what investors should expect next.
Betting markets for an Anthropic IPO in 2026 are wild
On Nov. 2, the day before the U.S. election, Kalshi betting markets gave Anthropic around an 87% chance of going public in 2026. The day of the election, Kalshi’s implied odds of a 2026 IPO for Anthropic varied, but they ultimately settled closer to 87% again. The market’s odds changed little over the next day, suggesting that bettors believed that the flip in control of Congress would minimally affect Anthropic’s plans.
When AI stocks in general fell sharply on Nov. 5, however, betting markets reacted strongly. That day, Anthropic’s odds of holding an IPO this year fell to just 64%. On Nov. 6, they fell as low as 53%, only to spike dramatically to around 85% by the end of the day.
Why the volatility? The drop in odds during the correction is self-explanatory. With AI company valuations falling across the board, Reuters reported that potential investors in Anthropic were growing skittish.
“Investors are pushing for a more attractive valuation to commit to the offering, with some viewing the recently discussed $1.5 trillion valuation as being at the high end of expectations,” the outlet revealed.
Why the spike in odds near the end of the day on Nov. 6? The exact cause isn’t known, but there has been no indication from Anthropic management that its planned November IPO will be delayed. Perhaps the valuation will come under pressure, but going public soon still seems to be the plan.
Of course, if AI stocks continue to decline, Anthropic may shelve its offering in the hopes of attaining a higher valuation down the road. But for now, betting markets seem confident that we’ll have another blockbuster AI IPO later this month.
Should investors trust the odds set by betting markets? I’m inclined to agree with the consensus here. The IPO preparation process typically takes between 12 and 24 months. And with an offering this large, Anthropic’s management will be hesitant to institute a delay. That’s especially true considering the company continues to lose money, making greater access to capital markets a priority. AI stocks have been volatile, but I’m fully expecting to see Anthropic go public before the end of the year.
Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger
Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn’t buy Nvidia in 2005.
But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of “Act 1″—the R&D phase. “Act 2” is the global rollout, a massive technology build-out that Google’s CEO says could be more profound than fire or electricity.
While everyone watches the chip designers, one “backbone” company provides the critical technology that Nvidia and AMD literally cannot function without. We’ve detailed this under-the-radar player in our new AI Playbook.
Continue »
Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
