Key Points
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Intel stock closed Nov. 3 around 57% under its June record close.
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Intel’s adjusted earnings per share might more than triple in 2026 if it hits its fourth-quarter forecast.
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Intel is planning for PC unit sales industrywide to drop around 10% in 2027.
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Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) stock has given back a huge part of its 2026 gains. Shares ended at $60.55 on Nov. 3, around 57% under the $140.94 they ended at on June 22. The stock dropped 45% in October alone.
My estimate for $5,000 put into Intel stock at that price is around $5,400 when 2030 ends. That’d be a gain of less than 10% in a bit more than four years, or under 2% a year.
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What surprised me is that this number assumes Intel’s business does well. My estimate has Intel more than doubling its earnings per share from this year to 2030.
Most of what keeps the result down is how much investors pay for Intel’s earnings today.
Intel’s profits have bounced back fast
Showing how quickly the business has turned, Intel’s non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share grew from $0.29 in the first quarter of 2026 to $0.42 in the second quarter and $0.52 in the third. A year before, in the third quarter of 2025, it was just $0.23. If Intel meets its fourth-quarter forecast of $0.25, its adjusted earnings per share for all of 2026 would total around $1.48 — more than triple the $0.42 it made in 2025.
Intel’s server chips are doing most of the work. Data center and AI segment revenue jumped 78% year over year to $7.3 billion in the third quarter, the segment’s fastest growth in 15 years.
But that fourth-quarter forecast is a big drop from the third quarter, and PCs are the main reason. Intel expects PC unit sales industrywide to shrink around 12% this year. And it’s planning for about another 10% decline in 2027. It doesn’t expect PC sales to rebound for good until memory supplies improve and prices start to normalize.
What might Intel earn in 2030?
Intel’s revenue may hit around $62 billion in 2026 if fourth-quarter sales land at the midpoint of its $15 billion to $16 billion forecast. This would be up about 17% over $52.9 billion in 2025.
Say revenue rises about 10% a year from there. This puts 2030 sales around $90 billion, over Intel’s all-time high of $79 billion in 2021.
In the third quarter, Intel kept about 17 cents per revenue dollar as adjusted net income ($2.8 billion on $16.5 billion of revenue). I’ve assumed that grows to 20 cents by 2030. That’s still under the more than 25 cents Intel kept in 2021. And it arguably leaves room for a foundry business that reported a $1.9 billion operating loss in the third quarter.
Intel’s fourth-quarter forecast also assumes around 5.44 billion diluted shares, reflecting the $23 billion of new stock it sold in August. I’ve rounded that up to around 5.5 billion to allow for a bit more dilution.
In all, the estimate is around $18 billion of adjusted net income in 2030, or about $3.25 a share. That means Intel would earn more than twice the $1.48 it’s on track to earn this year.
Investors are paying up for the rebound
Of course, the stock isn’t priced like a company making $1.48 a share. At $60.55, Intel stock trades at around 41 times earnings, using this year’s likely total. It’s also at about 33 times expected 2027 earnings.
I’ve assumed investors pay 20 times earnings at the end of 2030. That could seem stingy for a company growing so fast.
But Intel stock ended 2021 at $51.50, or around 9 times earnings, as Intel made $5.47 a share that year on an adjusted basis. Investors have paid much less for Intel’s profits before, even in a record sales year.
At 20 times earnings of $3.25 a share, Intel stock would be worth around $65 at the end of 2030. That’s where the $5,400 comes from.
Plus, Intel suspended its dividend in 2024, so the stock price is the whole return.
Yes, Intel might beat my numbers. Intel says its immediate priority is unlocking more supply to meet what it calls extraordinary demand for its Xeon server chips. And a major outside customer for Intel’s plants might boost the foundry business faster than I’ve assumed.
But even a bigger, more profitable Intel may not make up for paying around 41 times earnings today. Ultimately, I think the stock looks more interesting closer to $44 a share, where the same estimate comes to about 10% a year.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
