Agility Robotics, a developer of humanoid robots for warehouses, logistics hubs, and manufacturing plants, will go public through a merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI (NASDAQ: CCXI), a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), on Nov. 4. Its stock will start trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “AGLT” on Nov. 5.
Agility’s flagship product is Digit, a bipedal humanoid robot that can move heavy items and navigate narrow aisles, stairs, and ramps on its own. Nvidia and Amazon back it, and it’s signed multi-year contracts with Toyota, GXO Logistics, MercadoLibre, and Schaffer.
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Agility generated only $1.8 million in revenue in 2025, yet it has a backlog of over $300 million. It’s going public to raise the capital to convert that backlog into revenue. It believes it can deploy its first Digit v5 units by the end of 2026, and to eventually deploy 800 units in 2027, 7,000 units in 2030, and up to 25,000 units in 2035 as it scales its business.
That’s an ambitious outlook, but many SPAC-backed companies tend to overpromise and underdeliver. To see where Agility’s stock might be headed, let’s see what happened to two other companies that went public through mergers with Churchill Capital’s SPACs — Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) and Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) — in their first 90 days of public trading.
What happened to Lucid?
Lucid, a developer of high-end electric vehicles, initially attracted significant attention because it was led by Peter Rawlinson, Tesla‘s former chief vehicle engineer. It launched its first vehicle, the Air sedan, in 2021 and its second, the Gravity SUV, in 2024.
Lucid closed its merger with Churchill Capital IV on July 24, 2021, and began trading at a reverse-split-adjusted price of $252.40 per share on July 26. It closed at $369.90 per share 90 days later. But as of this writing, it trades at about $3.50.
Lucid’s stock plummeted because it completely missed its original targets. Before going public, Lucid claimed its annual vehicle deliveries would reach 20,000 in 2022, 49,000 in 2023, 90,000 in 2024, and 135,000 in 2025. In reality, it only delivered 4,369 vehicles in 2022, 6,001 in 2023, 10,241 in 2024, and 15,841 in 2025. It blamed its sluggish expansion on supply chain constraints, the Gravity’s delayed launch, macro headwinds, and intense competition.
What happened to Oklo?
Oklo also attracted plenty of attention for two reasons. First, it was previously led by OpenAI co-founder and CEO Sam Altman. Second, its Aurora microreactors were much smaller and more scalable than conventional nuclear reactors.
Oklo closed its merger with AltC Acquisition Corp, a specialized SPAC co-founded and co-sponsored by Churchill Capital and Sam Altman, on May 9, 2024. It started trading at $15, but sank to about $6 per share 90 days later.
Oklo struggled because it wasn’t generating meaningful revenue, was racking up steep losses, and was still years away from deploying its first commercial reactors.
But today, Oklo’s stock trades at about $23. It bounced back as its backlog swelled to 18 GW in potential orders through massive deals with the data center builder Switch, the social media leader Meta Platforms, and the data center giant Equinix. It also plans to start deploying its first commercial reactors in 2027.
What does this tell us about Agility?
Lucid’s fate is a dire warning for Agility, which could struggle to achieve its ambitious production targets. But Oklo’s recovery also suggests that Agility’s stock could stabilize after a few wild swings, as long as the company provides a coherent roadmap for its future growth.
I think investors shouldn’t simply chase Agility just because it’s a high-growth AI and robotics company. It’s targeting a pre-money valuation of $2.5 billion — and we’re not even sure how smoothly or rapidly it can ramp up its production and deploy its first robots.
Lucid and Oklo both burned investors who bought their stocks prematurely, and Agility could follow suit. Instead of accepting Agility’s long-term projections as concrete guidance, I’d wait to see a few quarters of actual results before touching the stock.
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Leo Sun has positions in Amazon, MercadoLibre, and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Equinix, MercadoLibre, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends GXO Logistics. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
