Key Points
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Palantir’s government and commercial businesses are both growing rapidly, with U.S. commercial revenue up 149% last quarter.
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The stock’s valuation implies that much of the future growth is already priced in.
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A reasonable 2027 range runs from roughly $140 per share on the low end to $260 on the high end.
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Few stocks divide a room of investors quite like Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) does right now. Ask 10 people who follow the stock whether it’s the most important software company of the artificial intelligence era or the most dangerous bubble on the market, and you’ll get 10 equally confident, opposite answers.
Both bullish and bearish camps are working from the same facts; they just weigh them differently. So instead of picking a side, here’s my actual attempt to pin down where this stock might land by the end of 2027, including bull and bear cases.
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What Palantir is doing right now
Let’s start with the plain fact that growth hasn’t slowed down much this year. In the second quarter of 2026, Palantir’s total revenue grew 93% year over year, and its U.S. commercial business, the part of the company selling to regular corporations rather than governments, grew 149% to $764 million. That’s not a one-quarter fluke either; Palantir has now beaten Wall Street’s earnings estimates nine straight quarters.
On the government side, the business that built Palantir’s reputation, the U.S. Army expanded its Maven Smart System AI contract by $618 million in August. NATO finalized a sole-source procurement deal for the same platform this year. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to roughly $8.15 billion, implying growth of about 82% for the year.
The bull case for Palantir
If you believe in Palantir, this is why: a company growing commercial revenue by triple digits while also deepening its grip on defense and intelligence work isn’t supposed to exist, and the market has rewarded that combination all year, with the stock jumping roughly 60% in the third quarter alone after a rough start to 2026.
Bulls will argue that Palantir’s AIP platform created real, sticky demand that took years to build and can’t be replicated overnight, and that government agencies, not just in the U.S. but in the U.K. and across NATO, are now locked into multi-year platform commitments that are hard to rip out once installed. If revenue keeps compounding anywhere close to its current pace through 2027, and the market keeps paying up for that growth the way it has, a path toward $250 per share or higher isn’t a stretch.
The bear case against Palantir
Here’s what keeps me from fully buying in: Palantir trades at a high price-to-sales ratio. That’s not a knock on the business; it’s a statement about how much perfection is already priced into the stock. Growth this fast rarely lasts forever, and even a modest slowdown paired with a valuation reset toward normal software multiples could hit shares hard. That’s the kind of math that already played out once this year, when the stock fell as much as 24% from its pre-rally highs.
CEO Alex Karp has also sold shares steadily, including an $86 million sale in August, mostly tied to routine tax withholding and a pre-set trading plan rather than a change of heart, but still a reminder that insiders cash out along the way.
Where I land on Palantir stock
My honest read: the business is firing on every cylinder, but the stock price stopped being a bet on the business alone a while ago. It’s now also a bet on investors staying this excited for two more years. If growth holds and sentiment doesn’t crack, I could see shares trading somewhere in the $230 to $260 range by the end of 2027. If either slips, even without anything going wrong at the company itself, $140 to $160 is just as realistic. That’s a wide range.
I lean toward the higher end: real governments and real militaries don’t hand this kind of work to just anyone, and that kind of credibility is worth something no spreadsheet fully captures. The real decision isn’t picking the exact number; it’s deciding whether you’re comfortable holding through some volatility to find out which one you get.
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Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
