Will Moderna Soar on Nov. 6?

We’ll start with a little background on Moderna. You may know the company best for its coronavirus vaccine, a product that defined it just a few years ago. That’s because it was the company’s first commercialized product, used Moderna’s mRNA technology, and brought in billion-dollar revenue.

Times have changed, though, with demand for vaccines declining in later pandemic days — and that hurt Moderna’s growth. But this biotech never intended to rely on one vaccine, and today it’s proving this. Moderna has since won approval of additional respiratory vaccines and has a full pipeline, with a focus on oncology and rare diseases. Pipeline candidates use mRNA technology, which involves teaching the body to make a particular protein to protect against or fight disease. The protein to be made depends on the illness.

In recent months, investors have paid close attention to one program in particular, and that’s oncology. As mentioned, Moderna’s intismeran autogene is being studied in several trials, and the one that’s in the spotlight right now is the farthest along in development: a combination of intismeran autogene and Merck‘s Keytruda in melanoma treatment. The companies released preliminary results in August, showing the combo met key survival goals, and Moderna stock surged 177% in one trading session.

A data leak sparks stock declines

In recent days, a data leak from that trial sparked a decline in Moderna stock. But the full release confirmed August’s positive results, suggesting that some investors may have taken the occasion to lock in gains. Meanwhile, investors also may be wondering whether the Moderna candidate will be as successful in other types of cancer — studies are ongoing.

Now, let’s consider the potential catalyst ahead. Moderna is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Nov. 6. The company, after suffering as coronavirus vaccine demand declined, has taken measures to adjust costs and has made progress on the path to recovery. In the second quarter, Moderna reiterated that it may generate as much as 10% revenue growth this year. Investors will look for any additional guidance on this point in the upcoming report as well as any comments on the company’s newest release: its flu vaccine, which launched last month.

Clues from management about what’s ahead

But the most important focus likely will be any comments on the oncology opportunity. Moderna’s personalized cancer vaccine could be a game changer, particularly if it works for many types of cancer. It may be too early today to determine this, as trials are ongoing, but investors will look for any clues from management. It’s also key to remember that a personalized vaccine presents certain challenges when it comes to manufacturing and rollout — it may be slower and more expensive to launch than a one-size-fits-all product.

Considering Moderna just delivered the latest data from the melanoma phase 3 trial, I wouldn’t expect anything completely new during the earnings report. But any general commentary could impact investor appetite for the stock.

That said, I don’t expect Moderna stock to soar right after the Nov. 6 earnings report. Instead, I think the next big leg up could happen ahead of a fresh data report or milestone regarding the personalized cancer vaccine candidate. Meanwhile, growth-oriented investors might take advantage of any dip or stagnation to add a few shares of this biotech to their portfolios.

Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Merck, Micron Technology, Moderna, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.