The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) stock has been under pressure this year. The company’s share price has fallen 73% across 2026’s trading, and it’s down 76% from the lifetime high it reached last fall. But while the stock has been taking a beating in recent trading, some Wall Street analysts see the seabed mining specialist going on a strong bull run in the not-too-distant future.
On Aug. 27, investment bank Stifel initiated coverage on TMC — giving the stock a buy rating and a one-year price target of $10 per share. With the stock trading at roughly $2.65 per share as of this writing, that implies massive potential upside in a relatively short time. What would it take for the stock to close that valuation gap?
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TMC’s hurdles to commercialization
While TMC’s outlook remains speculative, the company does have some dynamics working in its favor. The U.S. is aiming to reduce its reliance on minerals from China, and the company’s ability to extract polymetallic nodules from the seabed could help.
These nodules contain metals such as cobalt, copper, manganese, and nickel, and President Donald Trump signed an executive order in April 2025 to speed up permit approvals for seabed mining operations and assess potential contract opportunities for such operations. On the other hand, the regulatory environment and path to commercialization over the next couple of years remain complicated.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said that TMC’s application for a permit to begin commercial operations is substantially in compliance with the necessary frameworks, but the timeline for actual certification remains unclear. The company previously expected to have certification complete in next year’s first quarter, but it no longer anticipates that occurring and hasn’t given an update on when certification might occur.
Certification will also only confirm that the company’s permit application is in full compliance with the necessary regulations. — The company would still need to receive an official permit from NOAA to potentially begin operations.
And there could be other major regulatory hurdles. The International Seabed Authority (ISA) maintains that it has the sole authority to regulate seabed mining operations in international waters under its jurisdiction and has indicated that it could challenge TMC’s right to operate even if NOAA gives the company a permit. On the other hand, NOAA has said that challenges brought by the ISA may not be applicable because the organization’s relevant regulatory powers extend only to countries that are parties to the Law of the Sea Convention — and the U.S. is not a party to that agreement.
In order for TMC stock to start making big moves toward Stifel’s $10-per-share price target, the company’s mining project must first receive certification and then receive permit from the NOAA. It’s possible that success on those fronts could actually cause the stock to spike to Stifel’s target level, but even then, maintaining that valuation could require indications that the company is in good shape to navigate potential challenges from the ISA and scale up its commercial operations.
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Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
