Key Points
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Social Security’s 2027 COLA will be announced on Oct. 14.
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The latest estimates call for an increase of about 3.5%
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The official number will be based on third-quarter inflation data.
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We’re less than a month away from the official Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, announcement. The Social Security Administration (SSA) will announce the raise beneficiaries will receive on Oct. 14 at about 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
The current estimate is a 3.5% increase, according to the Senior Citizens League. This is significantly larger than the 2.8% raise retirees received for 2026 and would exceed the long-term average. Of course, this is an estimate and not the official total. Here’s how the final number will be determined and what it could mean for your monthly Social Security checks.
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How the COLA is calculated
The 2027 Social Security COLA will be based on third-quarter inflation data. Specifically, the SSA will complete the following steps.
- Examine inflation data from July, August, and September. The inflation metric that will be used is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.
- Average these three months of CPI-W readings to determine the average cost of living during the third quarter.
- Compare the average to the same three months from 2025.
- The percentage difference will determine the COLA.
This process also explains why we won’t know for sure until Oct. 14. That’s the date the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release September’s CPI data, the last piece of the puzzle needed to calculate the COLA.
It’s also important to emphasize that although the 3.5% estimate isn’t the final number, it’s likely to be pretty close. After all, we already have two of the three inflation data points the SSA will use to calculate the COLA.
What it means to retirees
Let’s assume that the 2027 COLA will be 3.5%, as estimated. Based on the average retired worker’s Social Security benefit of $2,083 as of July 2026, this would provide a roughly $73 increase.
However, it’s important to mention that this isn’t necessarily the increase retirees will see in their checks. Specifically, most Social Security recipients aged 65 and older pay their Medicare Part B premiums directly from their Social Security checks. We don’t yet know what the 2027 Medicare premiums will be, and it’s entirely possible (and quite common) for the standard Part B premium to increase at a higher percentage than the COLA. The Medicare premium is typically announced in mid-November, so at that point, you’ll not only know what your Social Security COLA will be. You’ll know how much of it you will keep.
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