Key Points
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Inflation numbers for two of the three months in Q3 are already in.
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2027 COLA projections are in the same ballpark.
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September inflation isn’t likely to significantly change the final COLA amount.
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How much money will Social Security beneficiaries receive in 2027? The final answer will be revealed soon. The Social Security Administration (SSA) will announce the amount of next year’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on Oct. 14, 2026.
Importantly, two of the three inflation numbers the agency needs to calculate the annual adjustment are already in. Retirees’ Social Security checks (and their “raises”) are looking bigger than last year’s.
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The latest estimates
The inflation numbers that SSA needs to finalize the 2027 COLA amount are the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers values for the three months in the third quarter of 2026. Data for July and August are already available.
Based on the previous two months’ CPI-W figures, experts predict that next year’s COLA will be between 3% and 4%. The consensus is that the adjustment will be the biggest since 2022, which was the fourth-largest increase in Social Security COLA history.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects a COLA of 3.4%. That’s only slightly below the 3.5% increase projected by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonprofit organization that advocates for seniors’ issues. Independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson also estimates a 3.5% adjustment.
AARP has the highest 2027 COLA estimate — 3.6%. This increase would boost the average retired worker’s Social Security check by roughly $75 per month. Like the other forecasts, AARP’s projection is based on currently available CPI-W numbers. The organization also used the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s inflation projections for September.
What September could still change
Rich Johnson, vice president for financial security at the AARP Public Policy Institute, stated in a press release, “With only one month of inflation data to go until the 2027 COLA is finalized, there’s less uncertainty about what that increase will be.” Johnson added, “Unless prices change dramatically in September, we’re confident that the COLA will be in the mid-3 percent range.”
But could prices change dramatically this month? Probably not enough to significantly affect COLA estimates.
To be sure, the Iran war and attacks in the Middle East by Iran-backed Houthis have caused oil prices to rise. President Trump has also expressed concern that Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refiners have driven diesel costs higher.
When fuel prices rise, so do the prices of many other products. Because there is typically a delayed impact on these other prices, though, the July and August CPI-W numbers don’t fully reflect the impact of higher oil prices. That could change with the September inflation report, but probably not to the extent that the final COLA will be much higher than the current estimates.
An immediate end to hostilities with Iran and a halt to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities wouldn’t likely be enough to pull the 2027 Social Security COLA down much below the mid-3% range, either. One reason why is that shelter (housing) costs have risen 3% over the past year. Even if energy prices somehow fell sharply in the second half of September, housing inflation would probably prevent next year’s COLA from slipping below 3%.
Bank on a bigger COLA, but…
The final COLA number won’t be released until mid-October after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the inflation numbers for September. However, retirees should be able to bank on a bigger COLA next year.
What they can’t bank on, unfortunately, is enjoying a significantly larger true income increase. Healthcare costs for retirees, including Medicare Part B premiums, are likely to rise more rapidly than overall inflation.
TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton summed up the situation in stark terms, stating:
No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run. The reality is that older Americans allocate their budgets differently from people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently. The CPI-W captures the experience of urban wage earners, which doesn’t represent the average senior’s budget.
Indivar Dutta-Gupta, a distinguished visiting fellow with the National Academy of Social Insurance, shares a similar view. He said recently, “Older Americans are feeling inflation most acutely in groceries, energy, housing, and healthcare — areas where those on fixed incomes have little room to adjust to and absorb costs.”
The 2027 Social Security COLA will almost certainly be higher than the 2026 adjustment. But it still might not be big enough for many retirees.
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