Key Points
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Many Social Security recipients want to know how much their benefits will increase in the new year.
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That announcement should arrive in mid-October.
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There are clues as to what to expect, but rising or cooling inflation in the coming weeks could change the equation.
If you’re receiving Social Security benefits and you’re struggling to keep up with rising costs this year, you may have a big question on your mind: How much will your benefits increase in 2027?
Earlier this year, Social Security beneficiaries received a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). A lot of people are hoping for a larger raise in the new year, and current estimates support that reality.
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But you can’t bank on any given Social Security COLA until an official announcement comes through. So it’s a good idea to know when that’s slated to happen.
Mark Oct. 14 on your calendar
Social Security COLAs are based on data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the months of July, August, and September. We already know what July’s data looks like, and August’s reading is set to be released later this week.
September remains the big wild card. Current 2027 COLA projections range from 3.4% to 3.6%, a notable drop from earlier in the year, when Social Security analyst Mary Johnson put out a forecast as high as 4.7%.
If inflation picks up substantially in September, the 2027 COLA could wiggle closer to the 4.7% mark than what the latest estimates call for. If it remains consistent with July, that 3.4% to 3.6% range may end up being pretty spot-on. And if inflation cools this month, next year’s COLA could come in lower than the bottom end of that range.
Either way, September’s CPI-W data is needed to calculate the exact numbers, and it won’t be released until Oct. 14. As such, that’s the day to mark on your calendar, since the Social Security Administration (SSA) is typically able to announce a COLA the same day the CPI-W comes out.
You may not get the whole story on Oct. 14
Even though the official COLA announcement is slated for Oct. 14, one missing piece of the puzzle that might still be unknown at that point is the cost of Medicare Part B for 2027. While Part A, which covers hospital care, is free for most enrollees, there’s a standard monthly Part B premium that enrollees have to pay that can change from year to year.
In 2026, the cost of Part B rose substantially. If there’s another large increase, it could eat away at the upcoming COLA, since seniors who are enrolled in Social Security and Medicare at the same time pay for Part B directly out of their monthly benefits.
The frustrating thing is that Medicare may not announce an official Part B premium until November. So even once the COLA news comes out, dual enrollees may not have the full picture.
But on the plus side, in that situation, you at least won’t be left guessing what the upcoming COLA will be. And you can begin to map out your budget and finances for the new year with that key information in your back pocket.
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