Key Points
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August inflation data will come in on Sept. 11 — and retirees will want to keep a watch.
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This will give us the second-to-last data point we need for the 2027 COLA calculation.
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We will learn the official 2027 cost of living adjustment when it’s announced on Oct. 14.
The final Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) prediction will be released on Sept. 11, 2026, as we receive the second-to-last piece of information needed for the calculation. It should give us a pretty good idea of what’s coming next year, but it still won’t be locked in.
A lot depends on where the August inflation report lands and how quickly expenses continue to rise throughout September. Here’s what to expect from the next COLA update.
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The August inflation report arrives Sept. 11
Sept. 11 is the day we receive the August 2026 inflation report. This will tell us how quickly costs rose throughout August and whether inflation is increasing, decreasing, or remaining steady compared to past months.
This matters because Social Security COLAs are based on changes in average third-quarter inflation data from one year to the next. We already have the data from 2025 and July 2026. We’re just waiting on the August and September numbers. On Sept. 11, with five of the six puzzle pieces in place, the COLA estimate expected from The Senior Citizens League will likely be pretty close to the real thing.
It may not be exact, though. If the August report reveals inflation rose faster than expected, for example, that could push the next COLA projection above the current 3.6% estimate. Similarly, if inflation is lower than expected, that could push the next COLA estimate down.
In either case, seniors are likely to receive a larger benefit boost in 2027 than the 2.8% increase they saw in 2026. But it’s a bit of a good-news/bad-news situation. More money is always nice, but all that extra cash will go toward paying for your larger expenses rather than improving your standard of living.
The actual 2027 Social Security COLA will be announced on Oct. 14
We’ll have to wait until Oct. 14 to get the September inflation number necessary to complete the calculation. This should arrive early that morning, and the 2027 COLA will officially be announced around the same time.
Once it’s locked in, you can estimate the size of your benefit increase by adding the COLA to your existing checks. The Social Security Administration will also send all beneficiaries personalized COLA notices in early December, listing exact benefit amounts, including Medicare Part B withholding for those enrolled in that program.
Use the last few weeks of 2026 to plan your budget for next year. If you still have questions about your benefit after receiving your COLA notice, reach out to the Social Security Administration for clarification.
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