Social Security Just Updated the Timeline Until Its Insolvency. Here’s What Changed.

Social Security has been on a path toward insolvency for decades, but the problem is worsening rapidly. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, the part of Social Security responsible for retirement benefits, paid out $200 billion more than it brought in during 2025. The Social Security Trustees expect the deficit to climb to $243 billion this year in their most recent update.

The growing deficit is accelerating the timeline for the depletion of Social Security’s trust fund. The newest Trustees Report says the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust will go to $0 before the end of 2032. That’s a few months earlier than they had anticipated a year ago.

Here’s what changed since then to speed up the timeline and what Congress can do to ensure the program’s health.

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The biggest changes impacting Social Security’s ability to pay benefits

The Trustees outlined four big changes that impacted the outlook for Social Security over the past year. There are three negative changes, somewhat offset by one positive change.

The three negative changes are:

1. Fertility: Fertility rates have been declining, and actuaries have adjusted the expected rate from 1.9 children per woman to just 1.75 per woman. The change won’t have an immediate impact on Social Security’s finances (children usually don’t pay taxes), but it will affect the program’s long-term financial status as fewer people enter the workforce to pay for retirees’ benefits. That’s one reason the Trustees estimate the program will pay out 78% of scheduled benefits in 2033, but only 62% by 2100.
2. Immigration: The Trump administration has cracked down on both temporary and unlawful immigration while increasing the deportation of unlawfully present immigrants. That’s led the Trustees to lower their assumptions about the current number of immigrants in the country (contributing to Social Security) and the net increase in immigrants over the next decade. This change has an immediate impact on Social Security finances, as even undocumented immigrants contribute to its solvency.
3. New tax laws: The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” enacted last year, includes a temporary deduction for seniors age 65 and up. The larger deduction means a smaller portion of Social Security benefits will be subject to income tax, thereby reducing the tax revenue that goes to the program.

Those changes are offset by the following positive change in the Trustees’ outlook:

1. GDP growth: The economy remains strong, and the Trustees increased their assumptions about real GDP growth per hour worked over the next decade. That leads to a trickle-down effect of increased wage growth over the next decade, which means more payroll taxes and revenue for Social Security.

What can Congress do to save Social Security?

Congress needs to make significant changes to ensure Social Security’s long-term health. That could include reversing policies enacted by the current administration to cut taxes and curb immigration. In fact, raising taxes on some and creating easier paths to immigration could provide an immediate boost to the program. Additionally, the government could create further economic incentives or protections to increase the fertility rate.

But it’ll take more than that to keep Social Security solvent. Congress needs to act swiftly and make sweeping changes to Social Security. Most people will probably have to make sacrifices to ensure the program is there for those who need it most.

The Trustees outlined potential changes Congress could make to close the gap between Social Security’s revenue and the benefits it pays out. Those include increasing payroll taxes, reducing scheduled benefits for all retirees, or reducing benefits only for future retirees. Other potential changes include increasing the amount of wages subject to Social Security tax, changing the benefits formula for future retirees, and changing taxation on Social Security benefits.

The sooner Congress acts, the less severe those changes will be. For example, the payroll tax would have to climb to 16.65% from 12.4% if it went into effect at the start of 2026. However, if Congress waits until 2034, after the trust fund is depleted and all other funding options are exhausted, the tax would have to climb to 17.3%.

Congress is likely to make a combination of changes to the program that will negatively impact both workers and existing retirees. So far, very little progress has been made on finding a solution that everyone can agree on. But it’s very unlikely Congress will allow the program that over 70 million voting Americans rely on to fall into insolvency.

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