Key Points
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The Senior Citizens League is now projecting a 3.9% Social Security COLA for 2027.
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The Iran war has led to rising energy prices and an elevated CPI.
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The average retired worker could get a $81 raise next year if this proves accurate.
Inflation has reached its highest level since 2023, and in many ways, this is bad news for Americans. Energy prices are the main culprit, and this has made it more expensive to buy fuel for vehicles, just to name one example. Plus, there’s a real chance that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates to help combat inflation, and this could have implications for consumer borrowing costs, the stock market, and more.
On the other hand, the unexpected surge in inflation could lead to a higher cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients. In fact, the CPI-W, the specific inflation metric used to calculate the Social Security COLA, increased by 3.9% year-over-year in April.
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Here’s the latest 2027 COLA projection
Of course, just because inflation was 3.9% in April doesn’t mean that the 2027 COLA will be the same. The Social Security COLA is based on third-quarter inflation data. In other words, the CPI-W increased 2.8% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, and that’s why Social Security recipients received a 2.8% increase for 2026.
With that in mind, there are some projections. In fact, the latest projection from The Senior Citizens League calls for a 3.9% COLA in 2027, indicating they expect inflation to remain at current levels through at least the third quarter of this year. This is more than a full percentage point higher than that organization’s previous COLA estimate.
What it would mean for retirees
As mentioned, a 3.9% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is an estimate at this point. The actual number can (and probably will) be different, depending on how the Iran war and other economic factors evolve in the coming months. But let’s use that to illustrate what this could mean.
The average retired worker receives approximately $2,081 per month from Social Security, according to the latest data. If the 2027 Social Security COLA is 3.9% as projected, it would mean a monthly payment of $2,162. In other words, the average retiree collecting Social Security would get an $81 monthly raise.
Now, it’s worth noting that most Social Security recipients over 65 pay their Medicare premiums directly from their Social Security payments. So, if Medicare premiums rise significantly next year, it could make the effective raise significantly lower. The good news is that most estimates expect a mild increase in Medicare Part B premiums for next year, but we won’t know for sure until later in 2026.
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