Key Points
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Social Security COLAs are based on changes in average third-quarter inflation data.
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The latest COLA estimate is 3.9%, which would add about $81 to the average check.
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The Social Security Administration will officially announce the COLA in October.
You’re pretty new to Social Security, and while you may have gotten a few checks, there are still some things you’re not sure about. For example, you know your benefits will get a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) next January, but you don’t know what that’ll look like.
Truth be told, no one does until the Social Security Administration announces the official COLA later this year. But if you understand the following three things, you should have a rough idea of how your checks will change in 2027.
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1. How the Social Security Administration calculates COLAs
Social Security COLAs are linked to changes in average third-quarter inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Basically, the government takes the CPI-W numbers for July, August, and September of the current year, averages them, and compares them to the average from the same months in the year before.
The percentage increase is the COLA. For example, the 2025 third-quarter average was 2.8% higher than the 2024 third-quarter average, so seniors saw a 2.8% COLA in January 2026.
2. The latest 2027 Social Security COLA estimate
We’re still several months away from the official 2027 COLA announcement, but The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, recently predicted a 3.9% boost for next year. This is up from its 2.8% prediction in April.
A 3.9% COLA would add roughly $81 to the $2,081 average monthly retirement benefit as of April 2026. However, some people could get significantly more than this.
The key point here is that the COLA is tied to inflation. Higher inflation leads to larger benefit boosts. But it also means you’ll have higher living costs, so it’s unlikely that your COLA will increase your standard of living.
3. When the Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 COLA
The Social Security Administration will officially announce the 2027 Social Security COLA on Oct. 14, 2026. That’s when it gets the final piece of information it needs to calculate the COLA.
At that point, you’ll be able to estimate what your 2027 checks will look like by adding the COLA percentage to your existing benefits. The Social Security Administration will also send out a personalized COLA notice in December, giving your exact benefit amount for next year. Once you have this information, you can start building your 2027 budget.
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