Key Points
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Recently elevated inflation levels may leave some seniors banking on a large Social Security COLA for 2027.
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COLAs are based on third-quarter inflation data, so it’s too soon to predict next year’s raise.
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It’s best not to rely on a COLA to improve your financial picture.
Inflation has been a beast in 2026. And it’s not just higher gas prices that are hurting consumers. Everything from food to apparel seems to cost more this year. Many retirees on Social Security are no doubt struggling to keep up with rising expenses.
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Part of the problem is that Social Security benefits only got a modest 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026. Inflation has been outpacing that raise, causing retirees to fall behind.
Many Social Security recipients are hoping for a larger COLA in 2027. And so far, the numbers seem to point to one. But a higher inflation reading in April does not guarantee a larger raise in the new year.
It’s too soon to predict next year’s COLA
It’s easy to look at inflation data for clues about upcoming Social Security COLAs. In April, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.9% on an annual basis. That’s the specific index Social Security COLAs are based on.
But those COLAs are based on changes to the CPI-W during the third quarter of the year. So while April’s data may provide a bit of insight, it can’t by any means guarantee a larger 2027 COLA.
After all, a lot could happen between now and the end of September. The conflict overseas could settle down, and gas prices could retreat. With that, the cost of goods could fall broadly.
And to be clear, these would be good things. So it’s premature to bank on any sort of specific Social Security COLA.
Don’t rely on a large 2027 COLA to improve your financial situation
If you’re hoping next year’s Social Security raise will be a giant one, you may be holding out for something that doesn’t happen. But even if 2027’s COLA is generous, it’s not necessarily going to improve your financial picture.
Social Security COLAs are designed to help recipients keep up with inflation — not beat it. Plus, a more generous raise will come at the cost of higher prices across a range of consumer categories. So what you gain in the form of boosted benefits, you’re likely to lose in the form of paying more at the supermarket, pump, and probably just about everywhere else.
If your retirement income could use a boost, it’s best to take matters into your own hands. Working part-time could supplement your Social Security checks nicely and give you money left over to invest. Even conservative assets like CDs and bonds could put interest income in your pocket and help you boost your buying power at a time when life seems to have gotten overwhelmingly expensive.
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