Key Points
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IBM and Quantinuum are making opposite bets on how quantum computing gets won, with IBM going for speed and Quantinuum going for accuracy.
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A new Department of Energy competition that pays for 100 logical qubits by 2028 gives investors a public scorecard for both roadmaps.
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IBM pays you to wait, while Quantinuum is the pricier, riskier half of the pair.
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Last week, the two quantum companies I’d most want to own for 20 years made opposite cases for how to win this sector of the economy. On Nov. 5, Quantinuum (NASDAQ: QNT) raised its 2026 revenue outlook and touted an accuracy record on its Helios computer. A day later, IBM (NYSE: IBM) switched on its most advanced quantum computer in Chicago, powered by its Nighthawk chip.
Here’s quantum computing in brief. Regular computers use bits that are either 0 or 1. Quantum computers use qubits, which can hold a blend of both and link together, letting them tackle problems like simulating molecules that overwhelm ordinary chips. But qubits are fragile and error-prone, so the race is to bundle many of them into one reliable “logical qubit.” The usual question is which quantum stock has the most upside. I think the better one is which side of the industry’s biggest argument you want to own. My answer is both.
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There’s also a referee now. In September, the Department of Energy launched a competition (with funding still unapproved) that pays companies from a $100 million prize pool to demonstrate a quantum computer with at least 100 logical qubits, with a 2028 goal.
IBM wants to win on the stopwatch
On its third-quarter call, IBM said its latest Nighthawk chip runs 100,000 circuits per second, then claimed a workload costing about $100 on IBM could cost up to $10 million on “slower competitive modalities.” That reads like a shot at trapped-ion machines such as Quantinuum’s. It also reached Stage C of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative and signed 16 enterprise quantum engagements this year, including one with General Motors (NYSE: GM).
The move I like most came Nov. 5, when IBM launched an error-correction platform with Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, pairing its quantum machines with an AMD-powered supercomputer. IBM’s Starling system, planned for 2029, is designed to run 100 million operations on 200 logical qubits.
IBM is the lower-stress way to own quantum because it pays you to wait. At about $246 per share, it pays a dividend that yields roughly 2.7%, and the company produced $7.8 billion in free cash flow through nine months of 2026. At its Dec. 10 Quantum Day, I want the company to provide a fresh dollar figure on quantum contracts above the $1.1 billion it has signed since 2017.
Quantinuum wants to win on the report card
Quantinuum’s pitch is the opposite: be right first, get fast later. In October, Helios reached 99.9995% logical fidelity, an error rate the company says is 100 times lower than the best published result on any other hardware. Its next machine, Sol, is on track for the second half of 2027 and will be tuned toward 100 logical qubits. If it hits that mark (a big “if”), it would clear the DOE’s bar a year early.
The overlooked piece is software. On Nov. 5, Quantinuum laid out a roadmap for its Nexus developer platform, designed so customers’ code carries forward to each new machine through its 2029 Apollo system. Nexus now supports more than 200 organizations, up 45% this year.
I picked Quantinuum over IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), the bigger revenue story, because nearly half of IonQ’s third-quarter sales came from the SkyWater chip foundry it bought, not quantum computing.
This is the pricier half. At about $40, the stock sits a third below its June IPO price of $60, yet the whole company is worth roughly $10.6 billion against 2026 revenue guidance of $31 million to $34 million.
The number I’ll watch is Sol’s logical error rate. Quantinuum is targeting 1 error per 100,000 operations at 100 logical qubits in late 2027.Hit it on time, and I’d keep adding. Slip into 2028, and that premium gets hard to defend.
I’d make IBM the core holding and keep Quantinuum smaller, sized for a tech stock that has ranged from $28 to $87 since its June IPO. One of these companies is trying to finish the race first. The other is trying to finish it without a mistake. For a lifetime holding, I don’t need to know which one physics favors. I just need to own both.
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Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, International Business Machines, and IonQ. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
