Key Points
-
UnitedHealth raised its outlook for 2026 adjusted earnings per share from at least $17.75 in January to at least $20.50 in October.
-
Optum Health, part of the company, had $735 million in operating earnings in the third quarter, up from $41 million a year earlier.
-
Scenarios built on annual earnings growth of 13% to 16% could put the stock between $444 and $672 by 2029.
-
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) has raised its full-year earnings guidance for the third time this year as its turnaround gains momentum. And after a challenging stretch, its latest earnings report on Oct. 13 gave investors more reasons to be optimistic.
Now, with earnings showing signs of recovery, here’s a look at where UnitedHealth could be over the next three years.
The turnaround is starting to show up in its earnings
For much of the past two years, UnitedHealth Group has been dealing with operational setbacks, rising medical costs, and pressure on its Medicare Advantage business. But these days, it is beginning to show signs of a meaningful turnaround.
The clearest proof is its improving earnings outlook. When management initially issued its 2026 forecast in January, it expected adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of at least $17.75. That figure was raised to more than $18.25 following its first-quarter results, then increased to between $19.50 and $20 after the second quarter.
Then, in October, management raised its outlook for the third time this year, setting its adjusted EPS target to at least $20.50. More importantly, the upward revisions came alongside stronger operating performance, suggesting the company is making real improvements in its business.
Behind those gains, it has been working to simplify its operations, strengthen its leadership team, and refocus on its core U.S. healthcare business. The company has also been exiting certain international businesses, while making changes to its operating structure.
These moves suggest that management is focusing on areas where the company has stronger competitive advantages and better opportunities. Plus, UnitedHealth has another major advantage beyond its insurance operations.
Why Optum could become an important growth driver
Optum, the company’s healthcare services and technology business, provides exposure to several areas of the industry. That includes pharmacy services, healthcare technology, and direct patient care. This diversification is important because it gives the company more ways to generate earnings beyond collecting insurance premiums.
Here’s how it has shown up in the numbers. In the third quarter, Optum Health generated $735 million in operating earnings, compared with just $41 million in the same period last year. That translated to its operating margin improving to 3.2% from 0.2%, reflecting better medical cost management.
Optum Insight is another area worth watching as the business provides technology, analytics, and administrative solutions to healthcare providers and insurers. In fact, its artificial intelligence (AI) enabled products could become a strong growth driver as healthcare organizations seek to improve efficiency. Management said it remained on track to invest nearly $1.5 billion in AI-related initiatives in 2026, with applications aimed at improving productivity and making healthcare easier to navigate.
Looking ahead, with its turnaround gaining traction, the question is how much earnings growth it can deliver through 2029.
Where could UnitedHealth stock be in three years?
Management said its 2027 earnings growth target starts at the lower end of its longer-term target range of 13% to 16%. From there, assuming a 2026 adjusted EPS of $20.50 based on the company’s latest guidance, these growth targets could lift it to between about $29.60 and $32 by 2029. Shares closed Nov. 9 at $397.62, a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 17.
In a more conservative scenario, UnitedHealth could reach around $444 per share, assuming a 15 P/E multiple. That reflects 13% annual growth, or $29.60 in adjusted EPS, and implies roughly 12% upside.
Meanwhile, the base case puts the stock at $554, using an 18 multiple. It reflects 14.5% annual growth, or $30.80 in adjusted EPS, and implies roughly 40% upside. The 18 multiple roughly matches today’s forward P/E ratio.
Lastly, if the company’s initiatives exceed expectations, a 21 multiple could push shares to around $672, reflecting 16% annual growth, or $32 in adjusted EPS, implying roughly 70% upside.
Despite the improving outlook, it still faces regulatory scrutiny, including investigations into its Medicare Advantage practices. The company is also exposed to rising medical costs and changes in government reimbursement.
Even so, UnitedHealth is clearly making progress, and its third guidance increase this year suggests its turnaround is accelerating. The next three years could be rewarding for investors if earnings continue to climb and the company delivers on its plans.
Should you buy stock in UnitedHealth Group right now?
Before you buy stock in UnitedHealth Group, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and UnitedHealth Group wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $344,878!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,097,846!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 852% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 208% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of November 11, 2026.
Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends UnitedHealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
