Key Points
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Its dedicated robotaxi, Cybercab, is key to the company’s long-term growth.
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Management’s narrative on the rollout has changed in 2026, and that could be good news for investors.
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock remains one of the more hotly debated stocks on Wall Street. Its mediocre performance over the last five years (down more than 12% at the time of writing) has tested the patience of even its most ardent admirers. Still, stock prices have no memory, and investments need to be judged more by what they could become than by what they were. In that light, is Tesla stock a buy now?
Missed estimates, and growing opportunities
Probably the most important thing in managing investor expectations is to underpromise and overdeliver rather than overpromise and underdeliver. Unfortunately, Tesla has done a lot of the latter over the last few years, but I think there’s a case to be made that it’s moving toward the former right now, which makes the stock attractive to patient investors.
Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn’t buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of “Act 1″—the R&D phase. “Act 2” is the global rollout. Continue »
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The missed estimates and false timelines offered up by CEO Elon Musk over the years include 1 million robotaxis on the road in 2020, 20 million Tesla vehicles a year by 2030 (a target now reduced to 5 million), and “autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year,” Musk said on an earnings call in July 2025.
It’s fair to say Tesla hasn’t delivered on management’s pronouncements, and that’s problematic for investors.
The narrative on robotaxis is changing
The most important of the above predicted events is undoubtedly Tesla’s robotaxi rollout. Indeed, one of Tesla’s most ardent bulls, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, thinks the automaker’s robotaxi will account for 81% of its enterprise value (market cap plus net debt) in 2031. So the narrative around robotaxis and the development of Tesla’s version, Cybercab, matters.
But here’s the thing. Management’s narrative, and Musk’s in particular, has been notably cautious through 2026. While every Tesla investor wants to see a widespread rollout, management has been emphasizing the importance of validating and releasing the next major upgrade to its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, v15, (still in development) before a general Cybercab release begins.
In addition, Tesla’s head of artificial intelligence, Ashok Elluswamy, noted on the last earnings call that its robotaxi was expanding permitted use conditions “to more weather conditions, day and night conditions, highways and high speeds. And all of that will be done hopefully by the end of this year, at which point you will see a lot more scaling.”
All of this speaks to a gradual refinement of both FSD and operational matters related to managing a robotaxi fleet before a general rollout. While this is a long way from a million robotaxis on the road or service to half the U.S. population, it is a realistic time frame in line with the cadence of the robotaxi rollout so far.
A stock to buy?
While many investors are undoubtedly frustrated with the slow pace of the rollout, the reality is that it is happening: Cybercab is in service (albeit only in Austin, Texas currently), robotaxis (using Model Y vehicles) operate across multiple cities in Texas and Florida, Tesla is refining FSD, Cybercab production is ramping up, and it’s reasonable to expect a widespread rollout next year. On that basis, the company seems to be on the cusp of delivering on its key long-term growth aspiration, making it a potential buy for speculative investors.
Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger
Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn’t buy Nvidia in 2005.
But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of “Act 1″—the R&D phase. “Act 2” is the global rollout, a massive technology build-out that Google’s CEO says could be more profound than fire or electricity.
While everyone watches the chip designers, one “backbone” company provides the critical technology that Nvidia and AMD literally cannot function without. We’ve detailed this under-the-radar player in our new AI Playbook.
Continue »
Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
