Key Points
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The S&P 500 fell 2.68% from its October close through Nov. 6, the third-weakest start to November since 1950.
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After the eight weakest earlier starts, the index ended the next April up just four times.
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Three of the four losses came with a recession under way or about to begin.
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Through Wednesday of last week, November looked OK for the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC). The index had climbed roughly 1.4% since its October close. Then it fell 4.36% on Nov. 5, as chip stocks sank on worries that the midterm election results might slow the build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.
By the close on Friday, Nov. 6, the index was at 7,376.86, down 2.68% from the 7,580.07 where October ended. It has bounced since, to around 7,550 at the close on Monday, Nov. 9.
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I ranked every year since 1950 by the same measure, from the last October close through the last close on or before Nov. 7, using Yahoo Finance’s daily closes without dividends. Only 2007 and 2008 started November worse.
Both winters went badly. But six other years came close to this one, and they didn’t all end the same way.
Image source: Getty Images.
The eight weakest starts
The index fell 4.76% in the first week of November 2007 and 3.90% in the first week of November 2008. Behind this year’s slide, the next six were 1973 (down 2.30%), 1976 (down 2.02%), 1994 and 1951 (each down 1.96%), 1967 (down 1.95%), and 1979 (down 1.92%).
The list depends on how you count the week. End the period a day earlier, on Nov. 6, and 1973 replaces 2007 as one of the two weaker starts. Election Day also used to close the market, so counting the first five trading sessions instead pushes 1976 below this year too, with a 3.21% loss.
From each year’s first-week close to the end of the next April, the results were scattered. The index dropped about 15% after 1973, about 6% after both 2007 and 2008, and about 2% after 1976. It climbed roughly 11% after 1994, 7% after 1967, 6% after 1979, and 4% after 1951. Four losses and four gains averaged about zero.
Notably, the typical result has been far better. The S&P 500 climbed over the same stretch in 54 of the 76 years from 1950 through 2025, or about 71% of the time, with an average gain of roughly 6%.
What separated the bad winters?
Three of the four losses came with a recession under way or about to begin, going by the National Bureau of Economic Research’s dates.
The economy peaked in November 1973, just as that year’s weak start played out. It peaked again in December 2007, a month after that year’s weak start, and that recession lasted through the entire 2008 case, ending in June 2009.
The fourth year near a recession was 1979. The economy peaked in January 1980, and the index still closed April up about 6%.
The other four years (1951, 1967, 1976, and 1994) saw no recession begin in the next 18 months. Three of them gained, and the only loss was about 2%. Together, the four winters near a recession averaged a loss of roughly 5%, but the other four averaged a gain of around 5%.
A weak first week doesn’t prove much
Of course, eight winters is a tiny sample, and as a buy-and-hold investor, I wouldn’t make much of a first week by itself. And the worst results mainly came in market downturns already under way. The index was around 38% off its record at the end of October 2008, and in 1973 it was already about 10% below the record it set that January.
This year’s start came from closer to the peak. The index finished October around 3% under its Oct. 6 record close of 7,818.93.
Just three of the eight earlier years started within 5% of a record. The index rose after 1994 and 1967. But 2007 started closest of all, at around 1%.
Last week’s worries focused on tech companies and data centers. As for the wider economy, the latest report looks solid. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate.
But the advance estimate for the third quarter of 2007 was 3.9%, just before the economy peaked. And the National Bureau of Economic Research didn’t name that peak until December 2008.
So the first week has been a bad guide to what followed, but the economy around it has arguably been a better one. Unfortunately, investors tend to learn about the economy last.
Last week’s slide might become something bigger, or it could fade by April, like it did in 1994. I doubt this list can show which.
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