In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report published in October 2026, J.P. Morgan projects that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will return 10% annually over the next 10 years, versus its 7.5% forecast for large U.S. stocks.
That call can be viewed as being very pessimistic about Bitcoin, as it’s far lower than its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.9% over the last four years, or as bullish, as it implies that it’ll outperform every major asset class the bank models over a fairly long period of time.
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Given that framing, should you buy the coin and hold it through the bank’s forecast period?
Bitcoin’s gains are anticipated to come with a hearty helping of volatility
J.P. Morgan expects 55% annual volatility for Bitcoin, and only 18% for large U.S. stocks. Both figures are broadly in line with the historical data.
Using J.P. Morgan’s figures for the coin’s estimated forward returns versus stocks, the two earn the same 0.32 points of return above holding cash per point of volatility. That implies it does not really believe there will be a higher volatility-adjusted return with Bitcoin than with stocks, only that Bitcoin’s higher expected return comes with proportionally more risk.
The subtext here is that if you can’t handle seeing the value of your investment swinging around a lot, Bitcoin is not going to be pleasant for you to hold even if it ultimately returns more.
The factor at the heart of the projection is Bitcoin’s shrinking rate of new supply being mined over time, versus the generally expanding global money supply.
J.P. Morgan called the coin “a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing,” meaning it’s a risky asset that tends to do well when central banks expand the money supply. That mostly fits; while the coin hasn’t proven it’s an effective hedge against inflation, its strictly limited supply and the impossibility of printing more of it by fiat should mean its purchasing power continues to hold up over time.
How much Bitcoin is worth owning?
Per J.P. Morgan, this is the first time this report series has included a Bitcoin return forecast. It still doesn’t recommend an allocation.
Still, it expects Bitcoin to beat stocks over the next decade. So it’s worth owning at least a little, once your traditional portfolio is sufficiently diversified.
As for how much to buy, BlackRock found in December 2024 that a 2% Bitcoin allocation in a traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio accounted for 5% of its total risk, while a 4% allocation accounted for 14%. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, suggested in late 2025 that the most aggressive portfolios should hold at most 4% in the asset.
That argues for an allocation of less than 5% for most investors — and remember, if the coin’s inherent volatility is going to make you lose sleep, aim for the shallower end of that pool with your allocation.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and BlackRock. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
