Key Points
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Social Security is just six years away from a 23% benefit cut.
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Avoiding this will likely involve raising the Social Security payroll tax rate.
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There’s a way to do this that would put most of the burden on wealthier Americans.
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Let’s be honest: None of us needs higher taxes in our lives. And yet, that’s a real possibility government officials are considering as they try to figure out how to keep Social Security solvent for generations to come. We’re now just six years from a projected shortfall that could reduce benefit checks by 23% across the board.
We don’t know what the final fix will look like yet, though a payroll tax increase will likely be a part of it. But it might not be quite as painful as you’d think.
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There’s a way to make wealthy Americans shoulder more of the burden
One solution Washington has discussed is raising or eliminating the ceiling on income subject to Social Security payroll taxes. This is $184,500 in 2026. It will rise to $192,300 in 2027. Income over this amount isn’t subject to these taxes, but it also doesn’t count toward your future Social Security benefit. This means that ordinary Americans pay these taxes on all their income, while the country’s wealthiest residents finish paying theirs on Jan. 1 each year.
Eliminating the ceiling for Social Security payroll taxes would force wealthy Americans to pay a lot more into the program each year than they do now. It could also entitle them to larger Social Security benefits in the future, unless the government caps the maximum benefit.
A move like this would drastically reduce the program’s shortfall, but it wouldn’t completely eliminate it. To avoid benefit cuts, the government will likely have to increase the Social Security payroll tax rate on all workers.
What a Social Security payroll tax increase would mean for you
The Social Security payroll tax rate is currently 12.4%, split evenly between employees and employers. Unless you’re self-employed, you’ll only pay half of this amount.
The worst-case scenario, according to the latest Social Security Trustees’ Report, involves increasing the payroll tax by 4.9 percentage points beginning in 2034. This would mean a 2.45-percentage-point increase for ordinary workers. For someone earning $60,000 per year, that would amount to about $1,470 in additional payroll taxes over the year.
But it’s not likely to be that bad. The above scenario assumes the government makes no other changes to the program.
So while it’s likely that higher taxes will be part of the final picture, it’s difficult to say how much of an effect that will have on ordinary Americans’ finances. Once the government has decided on a plan to keep Social Security sustainable, you’ll be able to review your budget and make adjustments before those changes take effect.
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