Social Security’s 2027 COLA: What We Know So Far, and What We Don’t

For seniors on Social Security, there’s perhaps no more important an announcement each year than news of an official cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA.

COLAs are meant to help benefits keep up with rising costs. And they’re pegged to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, which measures changes in the prices paid by workers for different goods and services.

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In 2026, Social Security benefits rose by 2.8%. And many seniors are hoping for a more generous COLA in 2027.

But will they get their way? Here’s what we know already about the upcoming COLA, and here’s the data that’s still missing.

What we know so far

In July, the CPI-W rose 3.4% on an annual basis . Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter readings from the CPI-W, so that piece of data gives us one-third of the information needed to calculate the 2027 raise.

Following July’s CPI-W, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, lowered its 2027 COLA projection from 3.8% to 3.6%. Cooling inflation was what caused the drop.

At the same time, independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson lowered her 2027 COLA projection to 3.4%. At one point earlier in the year, Johnson’s COLA number for 2027 was as high as 4.7%. Before July’s CPI-W, her working estimate was 3.7%.

AARP also decided to weigh in with a COLA forecast after July’s CPI-W was released. The group put that number at 3.5%, which is smack in the middle of the two estimates.

What we don’t know yet

Since August and September CPI-W readings are needed to calculate next year’s COLA, most of the puzzle is still missing. Even though the month of August is now behind us, it takes time for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to compile inflation data. August’s CPI-W is expected to come out on Sept. 11.

And of course we don’t know how inflation will trend in September since, well, none of us can predict the future. If tensions overseas worsen and oil prices creep upward, it could set the stage for a larger Social Security COLA in 2027. But if things hold steady, the estimates above ranging from 3.4% to 3.6% could be pretty on-target.

It’s also possible that inflation will cool even more in September, and that August’s CPI-W will show a notable decrease from July. If both things happen, seniors may be in for an even smaller COLA in 2027 than the low end of the range above. However, it’s unlikely that the upcoming COLA won’t surpass this year’s 2.8% raise by at least a little bit.

When an official COLA gets announced

September’s CPI-W is set to be released on Oct. 14, so following that, the Social Security Administration (SSA) should be in a position to announce an official 2027 COLA the same day. In fact, the CPI-W is usually released early, so the COLA announcement could come in time for your morning coffee.

Of course, it’s worth noting that last year’s COLA announcement was delayed because of the government shutdown that occurred at the time, which delayed last September’s CPI-W. Hopefully, there won’t be a repeat this time around.

In addition to sharing word of a COLA, the SSA is expected to announce some other key program updates on Oct. 14. These include:

• The program’s maximum monthly benefit for 2027.
• The 2027 wage cap, which determines how much income is taxed to fund Social Security.
• The value of a single Social Security work credit, which retirees need 40 of to be eligible for benefits in retirement.

So all told, it’s a pretty big day for Social Security, and for anyone who’s tired of grappling with the mystery of what next year’s COLA will be.

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