Key Points
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Social Security’s COLAs are based on changes in average third-quarter inflation data.
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We’re still waiting on the data for July, August, and September of this year.
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The Social Security Administration will officially announce the 2027 COLA in October.
Your Social Security benefits saw an above-average 2.8% increase in January, but it might not feel like enough with inflation crossing 3.8% in April. You’ll get another benefit increase next year, but we don’t yet know what it’ll be.
Plenty of people are speculating where the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will end up. But we’re missing three critical numbers that won’t come in for another few months.
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Social Security’s COLAs are based on changes in average third-quarter inflation data from one year to the next, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). It’s not as complicated as it sounds.
Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a new CPI-W number. This indicates how much a basket of common goods and services costs. By looking at changes in the CPI-W data, we can track how quickly costs are rising.
The Social Security Administration takes the CPI-W numbers from July, August, and September of the current year, averages them, and compares them with the average from the same months the year before. The percentage increase is the COLA.
We already have the 2025 numbers, but the third quarter of 2026 hasn’t even begun yet. Once these numbers start coming in, we’ll get a more definite idea of where the 2027 COLA will end up.
The Social Security Administration will officially announce the COLA in mid-October. At that point, you’ll be able to estimate how much your future checks will be and start planning your 2027 budget.
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