Key Points
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Social Security retirees are on track for a cost-of-living adjustment in 2026.
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The Senior Citizens League projects the COLA will be 2.7%.
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This is a larger increase than the Senior Citizens League originally anticipated.
Social Security retirees see their benefits increase most years, and with good reason. Cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs, are built into the benefits program because prices go up over time. Retirees also need to see Social Security benefits rise along with prices. Otherwise, their buying power would erode rapidly, and they’d be left living on very little later in their lives, relying on other retirement income strategies to make ends meet.
There will be an official announcement regarding the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment later this year. In the meantime, though, the Senior Citizens League is making projections regarding what the COLA will be. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is a senior advocacy group that tracks COLA indicators on a monthly basis, and TSCL’s analysis suggests that the 2026 COLA is going to be higher than originally projected.
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Here is exactly how much the Senior Citizens League expects the COLA will be, along with some details on how their projections have changed over time.
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The 2026 COLA is on track to be a little higher than expected
Based on the most recent projections released on Aug. 12, 2025, the TSCL is projecting a 2.7% benefits increase in 2026. This is up from earlier projections of:
- 2.5% in May of 2025.
- 2.6% in June of 2025.
TSCL began projecting a 2.7% increase in July. The reason for the change: CPI-W data shows that prices are rising more rapidly than anticipated. CPI-W is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. CPI-W is the inflation metric used to determine if retirees will get a cost-of-living adjustment and how much that adjustment will be.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares CPI-W data, and the Social Security Administration reviews data from the third quarter of the year to determine year-over-year price increases that are occurring on goods and services. If CPI-W goes up, retirees get a COLA equal to the average year-over-year increase in Q3.
So far, in May of 2025, CPI-W showed a 2.2% year-over-year increase, while June showed a 2.6% and July a 2.5%. Since the CPI-W data shows that inflation has been trending upward, TSCL has increased its projections for the 2026 COLA.
If this projection holds and retirees end up getting a 2.7% benefits increase, their Social Security raise will be slightly larger than the one they received this year when benefits rose by 2.5% in 2024.
Retirees will find out the truth in October — but realistic expectations are key
Seniors will find out the exact COLA amount when the September CPI-W is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since this data comes out a few weeks behind, October is the key date to watch.
While retirees are likely to see a slightly larger raise than they did last year, based on the way that inflation is trending, it’s important to remember these raises are not real raises. They don’t provide more buying power but instead simply help seniors avoid a loss of buying power.
Retirees will need to continue to budget carefully as inflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve‘s recommended 2% target; high levels of inflation don’t tend to be a good thing for seniors who may have conservative investments and a fixed income to cover their costs.
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