Key Points
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Social Security benefits are eligible for a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) each year.
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Based on recent inflation data, 2026’s COLA estimate just increased to 2.7%.
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Though that would be an improvement from 2025’s COLA, it’s not set in stone.
It’s not an easy thing to get by in retirement on Social Security alone (or mostly on those benefits). But for many seniors, that’s their reality.
People who get most or all of their income from Social Security depend heavily on the program’s annual cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs, to stay afloat financially and keep up with their expenses as living costs rise. And at this stage of the year, a lot of Social Security recipients are eager to know what 2026’s COLA will look like.
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Unfortunately, it’s a bit premature to have an answer. Social Security COLAs are based on third quarter data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). So until there’s a complete set of data for July, August, and September, the Social Security Administration cannot make its next COLA official.
Still, recent inflation data gives us a clue as to what COLA seniors may be in line for in 2026. And it’s actually good news compared to previous estimates.
Social Security’s 2026 COLA projection just went up
Many seniors are hoping that 2026’s Social Security COLA will be better than the 2.5% raise they got this past January. In that regard, there’s an update retirees are apt to like.
The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, releases data on Social Security COLAs based on recent inflation readings. In mid-August, it upped its 2026 COLA projection to 2.7%, which would be a notch higher than seniors’ 2025 raise.
It’s also worth noting that the Senior Citizens League has steadily raised its 2026 COLA forecast since March. That month, the group predicted a 2.2% raise for 2026. The month after, that projection rose to 2.3%, and it’s been climbing since.
In fact, just a month ago, seniors on Social Security were told to expect a 2.6% raise in 2026. If this trend continues, Social Security recipients could be in line for a COLA next year that’s pretty close to 3%.
A modest COLA may be ideal
If you’re on Social Security, you may be hoping for the largest COLA possible in 2026. But you should know that a modest COLA, as opposed to a huge one, may be pretty optimal.
A modest COLA in the upper 2% range is an indication that inflation is elevated, but not necessarily to an extreme extent. If seniors end up with a 2.7% COLA in 2026, it will mean two things — that inflation didn’t jump so much during the latter part of 2025, and that 2025’s COLA of 2.5% held up pretty nicely.
A lot of people are worried about an uptick in inflation in the coming months due to tariffs. So while those could push inflation and next year’s COLA higher, it’s better off for consumers of all ages if they don’t.
An official COLA announcement is set to come out in October, so that’s when you’ll really want to be on the lookout for news. Until then, you can keep tabs on inflation to get a sense of what your benefits might look like in the new year.
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