We’re only 93 days away from the U.S. presidential election. At this point, it looks like it will be a tight race between presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and GOP nominee Donald Trump.
For many retirees, the candidates’ plans for Social Security will be paramount. How might your future Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) be affected if Vice President Harris beats former President Trump?
Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks on Saturday, July 3, 2021, at the Carpenters International Training Center in Las Vegas. Image source: Official White House Photo by Cameron Smith.
A new COLA formula
Harris’ presidential campaign is still in its early stages. She hasn’t officially announced her plan for Social Security if elected. However, her public comments, previous votes as a U.S. senator, and proposals during her 2020 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination give a pretty good picture of the Social Security changes she would likely favor.
In 2019, Harris, then the junior U.S. senator from California, co-sponsored the Social Security Expansion Act. This proposed legislation called for changing the way Social Security COLAs are calculated.
Currently, COLAs use an inflation metric called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). This index has been criticized for not accurately reflecting the costs incurred by older Americans, especially healthcare. As a senator, Harris supported replacing the CPI-W with the Consumer Price Index for Elderly Consumers (CPI–E). As its name indicates, the CPI-E is designed to reflect the costs of older Americans.
In some years, the CPI-E would result in a lower Social Security COLA than the CPI-W would. However, the inflation metric would probably increase COLAs over the long run.
Inflation impact
Social Security COLAs are intended to help offset the erosion of benefits from inflation. Presidential policies can sometimes impact how high inflation rates are and, therefore, affect COLAs.
In one important way, Harris’ policies, should she be elected president, would be less inflationary than Trump’s. The former president has proposed imposing 10% tariffs on all imported goods and specific tariffs on Chinese imports of at least 60%. Harris has publicly criticized Trump’s proposal, stating, “His tariffs would increase the cost of everyday expenses for families.”
Many economists agree with her take. Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a joint letter concluding that Trump’s proposed policies would “reignite” inflation. The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that Trump’s tariffs would increase costs for a typical middle-class household by $1,700.
However, government spending can also cause inflation to rise. Some of the programs Harris has supported in the past could greatly boost federal spending. If government spending increased significantly, inflation would likely also increase, leading to higher Social Security COLAs.
Higher or lower Social Security COLAs under a Harris administration?
There’s an important factor we can’t leave out of the discussion about how Social Security COLAs could be affected if Harris beats Trump in November: the congressional races. Which party controls the U.S. Congress will be critical in whether either candidate’s proposals are implemented.
As of right now, the GOP appears to have an easier path to regaining control of the U.S. Senate, while Democrats have a slight edge in regaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Should Harris win the presidential race with a divided Congress, she would likely encounter significant obstacles in enacting changes to the Social Security COLA calculation and launching any substantial new federal spending initiatives.
What if Trump is elected with a divided Congress? He would also have a hard time getting proposed legislation passed. However, while Congress has the constitutional authority to levy tariffs, the president has some flexibility under various trade acts to impose tariffs temporarily.
The bottom line is that we can’t know how Social Security COLAs will be impacted if Harris becomes president because it depends on which party or parties control Congress. We’ll have to wait another 93 days to find out.
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Author, remind me of all the accomplishments Kamala has achieved in three and a half years as the VP? And show me on her election website what her policies are! The Biden/Harris administration has introduced more inflation to consumers than any since the out of control inflation in the early 80’s. And it appears most of her accomplishments are on class action lawsuits that her state participated in but they and she did not lead.
When does a climber/follower with an extremely low public approval rating rise to such prominence. When she runs a hiding-in-the-basement campaign as Biden did in the last election, aided by the advertising arm of the DNC, the main stream media. No press conferences, no comprehensive policy statements, no nothing but “joy”.
Unrelenting Joy won’t put staples on the middle and lower class citizens’ dining room tables, jobs will.
Don’t tell me what her her plan is, show me where she states what it is to the American voters.
I doubt Lamala could balance her own checkbook. I’m not counting on her for anything. Shaking your booty and laughing are not the skills necessary for VP position.
Ask any person currently receiving Social Security, when COLA goes up so do the taxes they pay, resulting in less dollars they actually receive in their pockets. This talk of Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists that signed a joint letter concluding that Trump’s proposed policies would “reignite” inflation. I bet they were against Trump’s tariff’s during his prior Administration and I am sure they were the ones saying it would cause Inflation back then… but funny how Inflation never increased they in fact decreased. How did they get those Noble Prizes for Economy? I guess they filled out the back of a cereal box and won a prize. Trump’s Economic Plan for SS recipients of removing taxes that they pay would actually increase the money that goes into their pockets. Considering these folks paid too much in taxes prior to becoming 65 this just makes sense and is a real meaningful increase in the SS Benefit.
Why she doesn’t do it now while in office. What has she done while in office? Most of the democrats/left / liberals are fundamentally stupid. They only think in terms of slogans they can’t reconcile experience and ideas , they can’t read historical records or even grasp why it has any connection to the current situation which strongly argues for a lack of understanding of simple cause of effect. They can’t come up with any kind of rational program. They are their worse enemy
Yessir!!! She’s a joke, Walz is a joke. She “plans” on doing this, but considering she WAS against “fracking,” but now claims she’s not. The Biden administration printed more money in 3 years, than the US had printed in the prior 30 years… in order to push “go green” campaign & everyone driving an EV by like 2030. The USA is now $375 TRILLION in debt… which will NEVER be paid back in full. Unless she has 1,000 acres of money trees that we don’t know about, it’s nothing but a broken promise, because she knows that what the people want to hear. But will it happen; can it happen; NO.
The constant bombardment of lies and fairy tales to change the poor and sad image of a failed senator and VP is telling. Kamala Harris and the Democrats through the direction of the communist in charge Obama have tried to ruin our nation. The policies of the left are made to ruin our nation not to make it better. Kamala is a puppet and a fraud without an original idea.
who are these authors???? What high on the hog neighborhood do you all live in???? You are waaaaay out of touch on what is happening with the middle class and the po’ folk, like us. You are promoting yet again another democrat agenda that is an ensured guarantee to pocket more for funding the ELITE LEFTISTS. Obviously , kamala is AMAZING!! at DOING NOTHING!!!! DO NOT GLORIFY A “CANDIDATE” WHO IS NOT QUALIFIED, HAS NOTHING TO SHOW AS AN ACCOMPLISHMENT FOR THE BETTERMENT OF THIS COUNTRY. This article has proved that you are what you say…FOOLS.
She is ALREADY in office, why hasn’t she already done it? Why, because she want to by votes with more empty promises and knows most of those affected
voters will be dead in 10 years so the real payoffs will
go to younger voters.
She hasn’t done it because she is not the president. She is the vice president. Doh. You can’t compare her record as VP to Trump’s record as president. It is apples and oranges. Her job is completely different from the president’s job. She does not have the power he does. Most people commenting here don’t seem to get that. She voted for social security expansion as a senator. That should tell you something. Biden proposed raising the special minimum benefit for lifetime lower-wage workers to 125% of the federal poverty level for Social Security beneficiaries. What did Trump do for social security in the four years he was president? Nothing. And if he wins he will continue to do nothing.
And how did she “handle the border” as Border Czar? She never went to the actual border. Her policies in Cali failed. This is why she’s not going to do anything for our country. This is why we are doomed if she wins.
everything that occurred during the current administration, she has been 100% in favor
her views have not been restrained at all by the current administration.
she is the “border czar” and it has gotten 5 times worse
to much money chasing to few goods.. INFLATION
remember the Covid $2000 out of thin air – the printing press
another economic kindergarten biased journalist
Please God Wake up the sleepy uniformed American population to the dangers of these Marxist wolves in sheep’s clothing. They care not for the truth and will say and do anything to retain the levers of power. Shame on the media for not vetting this beaver nuggets
While the Biden/Harris administration dazzles you with their “free” giveaways they’re robbing us with their left hand and Kamala Harris is learning the trade very well.
Harris falsely claims that Donald Trump wants to cut Medicare while, for the past two years, this Administration has appeased their “big-government” liberal allies by doing just that.
The Wall Street journal reported back in April 2023 that the Biden/Harris administration had “restricted plan marketing” for Medicare Advantage and “cut payments to insurers on average by 1.1 percent. An additional 0.16 percent was cut this year. Small as they may seem, it adds up to killing by a thousand cuts to your Medicare Advantage policies which save seniors enrolled in these plans $2,400 per year.
31 million seniors, like me, enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan can expect to receive a notice this fall of cuts to their plans. Not only will we have to endure news like this a few weeks out from the election, you should be prepared to provide more documentation to receive your benefits.
Far left Liberals like Harris have traditionally opposed Medicare Advantage plans because it not only challenges government’s control over our health care but shows the free market does a better job of providing affordable care.
In the words of Norman Thomas: “The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But, under the name of ‘Liberalism’, they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program, until one day America will be a socialist nation, without knowing how it happened.”
Everything Harris and Sniffy Joe promise is just that…promises. The old ‘chicken in every pot’ socialist scam in a different trans dress.
Everything Harris and Sniffy Joe promise is just that…promises. The old ‘chicken in every pot’ socialist scam in a different trans dress.
Harris promises higher SS payments and at the same time allows millions of invaders illegally taking advantages of the system and surely, she, the laughing hyena, will destroy it.
There is no penalty, or recourse, for an campaign promise which is broken on the day after installation into 0office.
Refusal by RINO’s in congress to safeguard the future of the US, — by refusing to pass the SAVE act to the spending bill and limit voting to legal Citizens, — should cause state legislators/governors to Declare WAR on the illegal invasion and activate lethal means for the National Guard to protect the Nation. Ref: Article I, Section 10, Clause 3.